tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post7049587226875783622..comments2024-02-19T11:10:16.893-08:00Comments on Brown Moses Blog: Who Was Responsible For The August 21st Attack?Brown Moseshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17562126209980810351noreply@blogger.comBlogger61125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-3035361025055150822013-12-10T07:01:57.986-08:002013-12-10T07:01:57.986-08:00As you well know, WP will set fire to almost anyth...As you well know, WP will set fire to almost anything burnable it lands on, and causes both burns and toxic effects to personnel whose skin is touched by chunks of burning phosphorus. <br /><br />The legal use of WP as a smoke round excludes built up areas with civilians in, which was the basis of much condemnation of the Israelis when they used it in Gaza. <br /><br />US Marines call a mixed bombardment of HE and WP a "shake and bake" for a very good reason. Medawarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05119173935699236303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-15340599636909034992013-12-10T06:54:50.768-08:002013-12-10T06:54:50.768-08:00Assad was caught with the wrong kind of firepower....Assad was caught with the wrong kind of firepower. Or rather, the rebels realized that most of his firepower was intended for a mobile and often long-range battle with the Israeli Army, and that their only viable strategy was to find from close range in built-up areas where the long-range firepower was useless.<br /><br />The small attacks were probably experimental in both ways: testing the international political temperature, and developing tactics and equipment for using "strategic" firepower at street fighting ranges. <br /><br />The only other tactic open to Assad that might work, is to embroil allies like Iran or Russia in the fight. It's beginning to look as if Iran doesn't fancy this, and Russia may have decided that Ukraine will make for richer booty than Syria, obtainable at far less risk.Medawarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05119173935699236303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-54402377484548835452013-12-10T06:45:06.116-08:002013-12-10T06:45:06.116-08:00The 140mm rocket isn't quite obsolete, and how...The 140mm rocket isn't quite obsolete, and however odd it looks, the other "UMLACA" weapon is part of a whole class of munitions apparently created during and for this conflict. Probably because the Syrian army found itself fighting a prolonged and much less mobile war than it was previously equipped for, where the range of its existing artillery proved to be awkwardly great.Medawarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05119173935699236303noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-16870507548652277982013-10-27T10:13:02.452-07:002013-10-27T10:13:02.452-07:00Japan are having alkaline ionized drinking water f...Japan are having alkaline ionized drinking water for many years, and they have discovered the item to get a profound have an impact on on their health.<br /><a href="http://purechemsdirect.com/buy-etizolam.html" rel="nofollow">Buy Etizolam</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15472532452503089651noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-80638331994055759702013-10-04T01:13:08.124-07:002013-10-04T01:13:08.124-07:00It's Very Informative. Thanks for Sharing with...It's Very Informative. Thanks for Sharing with us <a href="http://www.hanselschool.net/2011/primary.html" rel="nofollow">Primary Schools in Hyderabad</a> <a href="http://www.hanselschool.net/2011/library.html" rel="nofollow">Best Pre primary Schools in Hyderabad</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10379988993102705600noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-46163597162441609222013-09-21T14:47:23.554-07:002013-09-21T14:47:23.554-07:00There are more than two possible culprits. What we...There are more than two possible culprits. What we have is just history repeating, the pro-democracy uprising, that is propaganda without any meaningful truth. <br /><br />The initial idea was revenge for 1982 Hama massacre, within a few weeks, Christians and Alawites in general were simply added to the immediate target list, also the non-interventionists. The patriotic opposition.<br /><br />The latter, the regime's pluralist or relatively sane opponents had to be protected by the regime, doubly damning them. But damned once is more than enough for this war. <br /><br />The war in Syria is like Bosnia, it may turn into Rwanda. <br /><br />As soon as the reports reached Russia of a chemical attack, senior politicians assumed it was the beginning of a new genocide of Christians. <br /><br />"Christians tremble like peasants behind a crumbling castle wall, hoping that Syrian troops will manage to keep out the advance."<br /><br />http://www.joshualandis.com/blog/the-uprising-and-the-new-syria-islamists-rise-in-raqqa-while-damascene-christians-dodge-fire-by-matthew-barber/<br /><br />The insurgents in the area, are attacking the Christians, advancing towards them, and so why not a non-state party looking out for themselves? If the insurgents win, the Christians are going to die. That's a good incentive for self-reliance.<br /><br />So, why does it have to be insurgents or the regime? The Syrian desert is covered in the bones of the Armenian nation, and things are looking a little grim.<br /><br />The insurgents and their Turkish sponsors for all intents and purposes are the direct descendants of the people who carried out the genocide. <br /><br /> http://www.christianpost.com/news/russian-official-urges-defense-of-christians-in-syria-in-wake-of-chemical-attack-102773/<br /><br />That was the reaction in Russia, the west, doesn't care about Druze, Alawites or Christians, the United States has other issues, the civil war in Syria, is merely a component.<br />Greighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02024997380441749707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-73688365411630569682013-09-21T14:08:45.472-07:002013-09-21T14:08:45.472-07:00That rocket is going to hit nothing it is aimed at...That rocket is going to hit nothing it is aimed at over 9 klicks. Syria is a country with creative provision and that weapon is not so difficult to make.<br /><br />The regime has a number of constituencies fighting on its behalf, Russians, Armenians, a mixture of Slavs, how do we know somebody didn't get the Sarin in the south Caucasus? Greighttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02024997380441749707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-39908308911285866062013-09-21T08:33:09.684-07:002013-09-21T08:33:09.684-07:00I made a mistake. They don't remove the UMLAC...I made a mistake. They don't remove the UMLACA warhead in video 20. They remove the 12 bolts from the rocket motor to warhead adapter and then remove the gray UMLACA outer tube (with fins attached). The rocket motor is still inserted in the central warhead tube. The warhead central tube/forward portion of the rocket motor may be damaged due to impact which may prevent removal of the warhead from the rocket motor. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01718716337874488769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-15665253815201271212013-09-21T06:59:08.062-07:002013-09-21T06:59:08.062-07:00REF; Video on Syria Youtube Playlists; Syrian Gove...REF; Video on Syria Youtube Playlists; Syrian Government Chemical Attack Linked; Video 9, 13, 20, and 21.<br />1. More on the rocket motor (size and assembly details).<br />Most folks on here have seen the video were they take apart the dud UMLACA (video 20). In this video they unscrew the 12 bolts that attach the warhead to the rocket motor assembly and remove the rocket motor assembly from the warhead. The question is what is the actual diameter of the rocket motor, which is contained in the gray outer tube, and how is the rocket motor secured to the gray outer housing of the UMLACA (with fins attached).<br /> a. If you notice at the end of video 20 they have already removed the actual rocket motor from the gray outer UMLACA tube They also are removing the nozzle assembly from the actual rocket motor. According to the measurements provided in the pictures the diameter of the nozzle is about 104/105mm but the actual diameter of the rocket motor is actually larger then the diameter of the nozzle. When you look about 1.5 inches forward of the nozzle you will see a finely machined/welded larger diameter metal ring/band. This ring/band is about 16mm to 18mm larger than the diameter of the rocket motor nozzle and when added to the rocket motor nozzle diameter will give you the actual diameter of the rocket motor that is contained in the gray UMLACA tube (apx 122mm).<br /> b. The rocket motor is attached to the gray UMLACA outer housing by a number of bolts (number of bolts?). These rocket motor mounting bolts are visible in the videos referenced (some have been sheered due to impact). These bolts (holes) are on the outside rear of the gray UMLACA outer tube between the fins. The rocket motor nozzle assembly ring/band are female thread and the male threaded bolts secure the outer gray UMLACA tube to the inner rocket motor nozzle assembly ring/band making them one complete assembly. There are a few pictures/videos (video 9 in particular) that show the nozzle assembly extended about six or so inches and clearly show the bolt shearing effect due to the rockets impact with the ground. <br />2. The UMLACA warheads and outer gray rocket motor housing don't seem to be manufactured at a MIL-SPEC level but the actual rocket motor, particularly the nozzle assembly seems to be of much higher quality and probably of MIL-SPEC grade construction. <br />3. I believe that just like the US M130 SLUFAE the UMLACA rocket motor is a MIL-SPEC production item that has been some what modified (removed fins etc) to provided propulsion for the UMLACA rocket. My best guess is its a modified 122mm rocket motor.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01718716337874488769noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-57842401728284221152013-09-20T15:32:41.010-07:002013-09-20T15:32:41.010-07:00The heart of the issue is where these rebel factio...The heart of the issue is where these rebel factions acquired so much Sarin to kill 1000+ people. For some perspective,<br /><br />"A U.S. Defense Department model illustrates the problem. Releasing ten kilograms (22 pounds) of sarin<br />into the open air under favorable weather conditions covers about one-hundredth of a square kilometer with<br />lethal effects. Since population densities in U.S. urban areas are typically around 5,000 people per square<br />kilometer, such an attack would kill about 50 people.<br />Releasing 100 kilograms (220 pounds) of sarin into the open air affects about ten times as much area and<br />therefore would kill approximately 500 people. Releasing 1,000 kilograms (2,200 pounds) into the open air<br />would cover several square kilometers, killing about 10,000 people. Thus, only in an open-air attack using<br />amounts approaching 1,000 kilograms of sarin would the effects become distinctly greater than that<br />attainable by such traditional terrorist means as conventional explosives."<br />(From "Defending America/Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense/Terrorism, Asymmetric Warfare and Chemical Weapons, by Anthony H Cordesman, published by Center for Strategic and International Studies, Feb 14, 2001)<br /><br />So assuming similar population densities in Damascus as the average US city, anywhere from 100 to 1000 kg of Sarin was used on August 21. That's 25 to 250 gallons. While lab-scale preparation of Sarin is straightforward, manufacture on that scale is no small task. It's not an operation for a clandestine lab in a war zone.<br /><br />Even if the agents were captured from the regime, available evidence shows that the regime stores their nerve agents as binary compounds. These have to be combined, (possibly) purified, and loaded into shells shortly before use. Without the technical expertise, this is a suicidal task.<br /><br />Regarding the range: it may not be as important as you think. Chemical weapons are loaded into hand grenades. If you're wearing protective gear and your enemies are not, that's all that matters.DDTeahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12478074059973417909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-32396596273344617512013-09-20T15:15:17.829-07:002013-09-20T15:15:17.829-07:00"a [soil] sample 100,200 and 400m away from t..."a [soil] sample 100,200 and 400m away from the impact site would have been very useful."<br /><br />Again, it isn't so straightforward. This was a suspected chemical attack, not an experiment. "Control" samples have to be designed from the beginning. How can they be certain that a soil sample 100, 200, or 400m away from a (suspected) chemical munition contains no nerve agent residue--or that it does? It isn't predictable. There are no meaningful control samples to be collected from the field. The best that can be done is to use reference materials to prepare control samples in the lab. <br /><br />Given the certification process, the rigorous chain of custody, the performance qualifications, and the fact that multiple labs arrived at the same conclusions, there is no reason to doubt the accuracy of OPCW's methods from an analytical chemistry perspective.DDTeahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12478074059973417909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-12053250211514284092013-09-20T10:03:44.147-07:002013-09-20T10:03:44.147-07:00According to a report by Human Rights Watch who cl...According to a report by Human Rights Watch who claim to have accurately plotted the trajectory of the rocket to a Syrian army base.This version of rocket can travel over 9kms with a 55kg payload according to their experts.You can read their report online.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04040922590997695812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-45525573860068846872013-09-20T09:51:24.587-07:002013-09-20T09:51:24.587-07:00From my knowledge the diameter of a tube launched ...From my knowledge the diameter of a tube launched weapon is the diameter of the main body and not the tail fin. On your diagram you state the diameter of the main body is 345mm which in turn renders the rocket 345mm not 330mm. Due to the measurements having been taken with a tape measure and not a engineering tool such as a caliper there exists the possibility of error.The main part of any rocket is the propulsion system which determines the maximum payload and effective range.From your research i am sure you have come across a similar rocket that could deliver a 60kg payload,they where designed in the USA and shelved by the US military due to its limited range of 150 meters.Has any research been performed on what military and intelligence specialists would class as highly significant evidence the propulsion system evidence of which if not tampered with is located in the tail, According to Human Rights Watch this rocket can travel over 9km with a 60kg payload,Aceing the USA design by 8850 meters..Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04040922590997695812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-85809884187936322692013-09-20T08:28:50.140-07:002013-09-20T08:28:50.140-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04040922590997695812noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-16242474385879510622013-09-20T08:07:43.704-07:002013-09-20T08:07:43.704-07:00no need to walk miles away. a sample 100,200 and 4...no need to walk miles away. a sample 100,200 and 400m away from the impact site would have been very useful.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-30825072582160897102013-09-19T17:24:44.966-07:002013-09-19T17:24:44.966-07:00sasa wawa: Controls are used in the laboratory an...sasa wawa: Controls are used in the laboratory analysis. In fact, in order to validate their competency at detecting chemical agents, OPCW-certified labs must confirm a positive control (i.e., a sample spiked with nerve agent) and reject a negative control (i.e., find no nerve agent on a sample known not to contain any nerve agent).<br /><br />Obtaining an actual soil control on the frontlines would be difficult, to say the last. It isn't as simple as walking a few miles away and collecting some of the soil. DDTeahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12478074059973417909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-37338511111341607592013-09-19T17:07:51.156-07:002013-09-19T17:07:51.156-07:00That seems reasonable. Another possible explanatio...That seems reasonable. Another possible explanation is that it was used to facilitate filling--one port is the "fill" port the other is the "vent" port for air being displaced by the liquid entering the warhead.<br /><br />It could also be part of the dissemination mechanism. The warhead itself may be filled with nerve agent and then pressurized. On impact, the valve opens and disperses the Sarin as an aerosol.<br />DDTeahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12478074059973417909noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-78122950075728926902013-09-18T23:50:24.419-07:002013-09-18T23:50:24.419-07:00Charles - any evidence of Assad winning the war? ...Charles - any evidence of Assad winning the war? On the contrary, he is losing base after base, just lost base 66, and he is gaining nothing.Khalidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11093823702752534075noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-58955907686523216982013-09-18T21:03:48.198-07:002013-09-18T21:03:48.198-07:00I agree the range of that munition is an open ques...I agree the range of that munition is an open question of importance. But while superficially similar, I don't believe you can derive too much from the SLU-FAE example.<br /><br />To start with, that US example was a converted air-to-surface rocket: whereas we don't know enough about this munition yet to assess its limitations. Also, because it was meant as a mineclearer, SLU-FAE never had to be far from its objective.<br /><br />This particular weapon is now very strongly associated with sarin delivery after the UN report... a very short range nerve gas delivery system would seem a very bad idea, generally speaking.Bruce_Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12472924925251707163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-53804081527453988622013-09-18T20:50:38.844-07:002013-09-18T20:50:38.844-07:00Given that most of these weapons would disperse th...Given that most of these weapons would disperse their cloud in the air if they operate correctly, and not all the impact points are known either, I don't believe you could determine anything of value with the method you're outlining above.Bruce_Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12472924925251707163noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-72910074840135195072013-09-18T15:20:23.310-07:002013-09-18T15:20:23.310-07:00Moses, how far can a non spinning 330mm rocket wit...Moses, how far can a non spinning 330mm rocket with a 55 liter trashcan on top fly? what is the range? and accuracy? Rachelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16425595339548107810noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-62829625110775803442013-09-18T05:39:29.698-07:002013-09-18T05:39:29.698-07:00I agree it's a probable sarin marker. Just say...I agree it's a probable sarin marker. Just saying the report seems to disassociate M14 with a chemical attack.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-54688072493942237662013-09-18T05:29:08.041-07:002013-09-18T05:29:08.041-07:00There was no information about how site 2 azimuth ...There was no information about how site 2 azimuth was calculated so it's hard to evaluate it.<br />As far as I can tell, there was only 1 rocket body found, and it was not linked to a chemical attack. It seems like a conventional M14 attack originating from SAA bases.<br />The azimuths in Zamalka are less reliable, but even if we assume they're correct, it seems highly unlikely that a rocket of that structure could travel 9.6 km.<br />Bottom line - there is no evidence tying a chemical attack to the SAA bases near Qudssaya.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-8968450260496229882013-09-18T05:23:40.895-07:002013-09-18T05:23:40.895-07:00Khalid - they didn't bomb their own families. ...Khalid - they didn't bomb their own families. They bombed an area controlled by a competing rebel faction. <br />Here are some points to consider:<br />- Zamalka is FSA dominant<br />- ISIS has declared war against the FSA<br />- 6 weeks before the attack a car bomb exploded in an FSA funeral in Zamalka killing 85.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4871088750473093560.post-36283383600558949172013-09-18T05:17:16.236-07:002013-09-18T05:17:16.236-07:00Sorry I wasn't clear - I'll try to explain...Sorry I wasn't clear - I'll try to explain again:<br />There was a wide scale sarin attack in the Zamalka area. The UN went there and took soil samples that were tested positive for sarin. However, all soil samples were taken near the UMLACA impact sites. Since they didn't take soil samples in locations in the same area that are far from the impact sites, the association of the attack with the UMLACA is not as strong as it could be.<br />For example, let's say the attack was done by a vehicle distributing sarin in the area. In that case we would find sarin in soil samples all over that area - both near and far from impact sites.<br />Hope I explained myself better.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16560859391032391947noreply@blogger.com