Questions Of Authenticity Over The Al-Bhouti Assassination Video

Last night I posted about this video claiming to show the assassination of Dr. Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Bouti

Since then, a couple of people have highlighted claims that the video was faked, the first claim being based of this image:

This attempts to suggest that the video is fake because the chair cannot be seen on the assassination video.  If we look at this earlier video of Al-Bhouti sat in the same position we can see it matches what's shown in the assassination video

Now let's take a look at the assassination video before and after the explosion, in particular the area circled in red

Here we can see that what would have been covering the chair before the explosion appears to be missing in the second photograph.  Rather than evidence of the video being fake the original claim actually provides more evidence than points to the video being genuine.

Another claim, based off the original picture of alleged fakery and the following photograph, is there's two mic stands, while only one is visible in the video

These are photographs that were published on the SANA website, which also provides other photographs that help clear this up.  Here we have a side view of the mic stand, which clearly shows the mic taped on top of the stand with white tape, which from certain angles gives the appearance of their being two microphones

So again, this seems to be more confirmation that the video of genuine.  To me, it seems very hard to escape the fact that this video is the real deal, so the question remains, what does this actually show us about the attack?


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Video Claims To Show The Moment Of Mohammad Al-Bouti's Assassination

A very unusual video has been posted online today that claims to show the assassination Dr. Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Bouti, who was reportedly killed in a suicide attack in Damascus on March 22nd (graphic)

There's obviously some questions of authenticity when it comes to videos like this, so let's take a look at two still images, one from the video, and one from state media

Although the quality of the video is poor, and the smoke from the apparent explosion obscures finer details, a few things do stand out.  The white objects on the right of the table appears to match, as does the damage to the mosaic.  The furniture and stripes on the wall appear to match as well, so either this is an extremely elaborate fake, or a genuine video.

The question is then, what does this show? Some people have queried the actions of the first man who approaches him, suggesting he could be stabbing Al-Bouti, while others think he's trying to pull Al-Bouti out of the way.  It's something that will certainly be looked at very closely in the coming days, and is sure to generate a lot of discussion.


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Early Signs Of The "Aleppoisation" Of Southern Syria

Since the arrival of weapons purchased from Croatia by Saudi Arabia, and smuggled into Syria from Jordan, there's been a significant increase in opposition activity in the south of the country, centering around Daraa.  There's been a number of reports of military bases being over-run by armed groups using these weapons, and various equipment captured from these bases.

When talking about the south of the country one thing that's very important is understanding the difference in equipment between that region and other parts of the country.  Generally the opposition in the south have been poorly equipped compared to the groups in the north and around Deir Ez-Zor, so the arrival of large amounts of anti-tank weapons has made a significant difference.

One of the most significant recent acquisitions, reportedly from captured bases, are MANPADS, with the following videos showing examples reportedly captured from a number of locations in the south

We can see why this could be very significant by looking at how events played out in the north of the country.  As the opposition in the north captured more bases and more equipment it allowed them to attack increasingly heavily defended bases, with the capture of anti-aircraft weapons, like MANPADS, allowing them to defend from attacks from the air, which in turn meant they could deploy captured artillery and tanks, which were essential in attacking heavily defended bases.

So what I believe we are seeing in the south of the country is what I like to call "Aleppoisation", where we're now seeing in the south of the country the same sequence of events that led to the current situation in the Aleppo region.  As far as I can tell the arrival of the Croatian weapons played a key role in this turn of events, and in the coming months it could be highly significant.


Related articles
Chinese MANPADS In Syria : Does 2 + 2 = FN-6?
Something Everyone Should Know About SA-24 MANPADS
New Type Of Shoulder Mounted Surface To Air Missile Captured By The Opposition  
Video Shows Captured SA-16 And SA-24 Surface To Air Missiles
The Trigger - The MANPADS presence in the Syrian conflict mapped
NYT At War - Heat-Seeking Missiles in Syria: The SA-7 in Action with Rebels
Youtube Playlist MANPADS Sightings In Syria

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DIY Weapons In Syria

Some of you may not know I've been putting together a collection of Youtube playlists, in an attempt to categorise the many videos coming out of Syria.  One list I've been working on is DIY weapons in Syria, and  having reached the 200 video limit for Youtube playlists I've now split them into separate categories:

DIY Remote Control Weapons

DIY BMP Turrets

DIY Rocket/Missile Launching Systems

DIY Catapults

DIY Mortars

DIY Rockets

Large DIY Rockets

DIY Grenade Launchers

DIY Grenades

DIY Rifle Grenades

DIY Uncategorised Weapons

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Unexploded Cluster Bomblets Repurposed As DIY Mortar Bombs

Back in November I wrote about unexploded cluster bomblets being repurposed as warheads for DIY rockets, and now we have this video showing bomblets being used as DIY mortar bombs

Although the video is quite dark we do get a good look at some of the DIY mortar bombs

Here we can clearly see that PTAB 2.5m cluster bomblets have been modified with new fuzes and new tail fins.  This is the only example I've come across of this type of DIY mortar bomb, so it's unclear if this is just an experiment.  It is of course extremely dangerous to handle unexploded cluster bomblets, and it seems these opposition members have managed to find a very risky source of new explosives.


Related Articles
Unexploded Cluster Bomblets Repurposed As DIY Rocket Warheads
Unexploded Bombs Used In A Truck Bomb By Jabhat al-Nusra
Clear Evidence Of DIY Barrel Bombs Being Used By The Syrian Air Force
Cluster Bomb Usage Rises Significantly Across Syria
The Mystery Of The Syrian Barrel Bombs

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Another Case Of Weapons Mis-Identification In The Media - "British AS-50s" On Al-Arabiya

Today I've seen people getting very excited about this following video, showing a large caliber rifle

Much of the excitement around this video is thanks to this Al-Arabiya article, which claims the weapon is a British AS-50 sniper/anti-materiel rifle, and questions how it reached the hands of the opposition.  The problem is, this isn't an AS-50, and doesn't look anything like one.  Here's the rifle from the video:

Now carefully compare this to the AS-50

Now at a passing glance they might look the same, but if you take time to examine the details you'll notice they are actually totally different.  What the rifle in the video does match far more closely is a Chinese M99, pictured below

Again, there's the question of where these are coming from, and they aren't the first unusual Chinese weapon to make a sudden appearance in recent months.  The problem I have with this report is it'll get repeated again and again and eventually it'll be accepted by many people that the opposition has British AS-50 rifles, even though there's no actual evidence to support that.  It's not the first time I've seen totally inaccurate reporting of arms in the media, and although it might seem like minor nit-picking these reports can result in a total mis-interpretation of events on the ground, and that can lead to more confusion about an already extremely complex situation.

Related Articles
Sky News Arabic Misidentifies Weapons As SA-24 MANPADS
The Daily Mirror Confuses Sidewinders With Stingers
A Great Example Of How Not To Write About Chemical Weapons And Arms In Syria


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Hackgate - Springwatch

A summary of recent events and what to watch out for from my regular contributor.

1  Kavanagh's replacement?

No, not Trevor.  As discussed here back in January, all Hackgate investigations were quietly migrated back to the home of their troubled and stuttering genesis in Specialist Operations under Assistant Commissioner (AC) Cressida Dick.  After Sue Akers' retirement, responsibility for Operations Weeting, Elveden and Tuleta had passed to Deputy AC Steve Kavangh. Kavanagh promptly applied for the post of Chief Constable of Essex Police and was confirmed in his new post in February.  Meanwhile, no news has emerged of who now has operational command of Operations Weeting, Elveden, Tuleta as DAC Kavanagh's designated replacement.

That leaves AC Cressida Dick holding the Hackgate baby, having to act as spokeswoman in defending those dawn raids and arrests of journalists (see here), at the same time as justifying why Counter Terrorism should remain within her Metropolitan Police (MET) command and not be transferred to the new National Crime Agency.  It would be interesting - and in the public interest - to see some clear up-to-date statement from the MET on the chain of command of the Hackgate investigations. Perhaps Chair of Home Affairs Select Committee Keith Vaz MP might ask?

2  Craig Denholm and the IPCC

Still waiting for any sign of that Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC) report following the investigation into aspects of the Milly Dowler phone hacking in 2002.  (for background see here)

Surrey's Deputy Chief Constable Craig Denholm and Det Sup Maria Woodall were referred for IPCC conduct investigation in June 2012.  By November 2012, it was reported (Guardian) that the IPCC report was "almost complete" and due to be submitted to Surrey Police by the beginning of December.  Denholm then applied unsuccessfully for the post of Chief Constable of Devon and Cornwall.  Despite suspicions that the report would be delayed for 18 months or more (here) whilst Denholm would be allowed to retire from Surrey, in January 2013 the IPCC

said it has completed its file on Craig Denholm, the senior police officer who allegedly knew the News of the World had hacked the phone but took no action.  Speaking to the BBC, chief constable Lynne Owens described the police watchdog’s report as “thorough” and said Surrey Police will decide what action to take in the wake of ongoing criminal investigations.
The IPCC has said it is now awaiting chief constable Owens response to the file.

3  Media Plurality

Debates on the Royal Charter and press regulation have taken centre stage, allowing key issues of media ownership to be overshadowed. A News Corporation re-newed bid for BSkyB has even been rumoured.

In the US though, Rupert Murdoch is not yet getting his own way in expecting a waiver to laws designed to prevent market dominance in Los Angeles and elsewhere.  Similar pan-European legislation is also being mooted (here) through a recognised European Citizens' Initiative.  Meanwhile in the UK, ownership concentration is back on the Parliamentary agenda - with a focus on safeguarding plurality particularly in news provision across media platforms.

On March 28th, the House of Lords Select Committee on Communications announced its new inquiry into Media Plurality.  It aims to give its recommendations in Autumn 2013.  Its call for evidence says

Achieving a workable approach to plurality, particularly in provision of news and current affairs, is generally considered fundamental to a well-functioning democratic society, ensuring as far as possible informed citizens and a media without any single set of views or individuals wielding too much influence over the political process. Any consideration of plurality is, of course, heavily tied in with the wider context of the future of news provision more generally, particularly of newspapers....issues surrounding media plurality are once again under the policy spotlight, prompted by concerns raised about the proposed (and then dropped) acquisition of BSkyB by News Corporation; Ofcom’s report on Measuring Media Plurality; Lord Justice Leveson’s report; the report by the European Commission’s High Level Media Group on Media Freedom & Plurality; and the recently-launched European citizens’ initiative for media pluralism.

4  The ICO and Data Protection Act

Published in March, 'The Functions, Powers and Resources of the Information Commissioner' is the latest, and timely, report from the Justice Select Committee.

The phone hacking scandal and the subsequent inquiry by Lord Justice Leveson into the ethics, practice and culture of the press drew attention to the past failings of the ICO during Operation Motorman. It also showed the importance of data protection and the need for a regulator with the ability to take effective action.

The Data Protection Act, with its controversial Section 55 applicable to press intrusion, came back under the Justice Committee scrutiny.  Surprisingly, it appears that a conviction under Section 55 does not currently result in a criminal record.  The ICO

argued that criminal records, which are a matter of both deterrence and of assisting detection, were essential in reflecting the seriousness of the offence. At present the offence of unlawful obtaining etc is not a recordable offence. It is not therefore recorded on the Police National Computer. Fingerprint impressions, DNA samples and descriptive details are not currently taken from those individuals who are prosecuted by the ICO for the section 55 offence 

Unsurprisingly, the Justice Committee wishes to see Section 55 breaches recordable.  As for triggering legislation to include custodial sentences (up to 2 yrs, subject to public interest defence), the Report strongly recommends

Introduction of the option of custodial sentences for section 55 offences would emphasise their seriousness. We call on the Government to adopt our previous recommendation, as well as that of the Home Affairs Committee, the Joint Committee on the Draft Communications Data Bill and the Leveson Inquiry, and commence sections 77 and 78 of the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008 to allow for custodial sentences for breach of section 55 of the Data Protection Act 1998.

5  Operation Elveden conviction

There have so far been four convictions in Operation Elveden for the offence of Misconduct in Public Office.  Yet each individual sentence has been different. April Casburn received 15 months imprisonment. She had pleaded not guilty so did not have her sentence reduced on conviction

The defendant does not have the benefit of the mitigation that would have accompanied a guilty plea.
Without the important complicating factor [ongoing child adoption process]..., the sentence would have been 3 years imprisonment.

On March 27th, three others were sentenced for misconduct offences for which each had pleaded guilty.  Alan Tierney, former Surrey police officer, received 10 months and 6 months (concurrently) for two offences, whilst former prison officer Richard Trunkfield was sentenced to 16 months for a single offence.  Another police officer (un-named for legal reasons) was given a term of 2 years.  He was told

the offence warranted a sentence of three years, but because of his early guilty plea he was reducing the sentence by a third. 

What seem at first sight to be discrepancies in sentences are explained by each individual sentence being increased or decreased for a variety of specific aggravating / mitigating factors.  These can include an early guilty plea or - as in Trunkfield's case - the extreme sensitivity of the identity of the prisoner about whom he leaked information.  There are guidelines, but Judge's discretion is exercised in applying sentence reductions.

Those charged with similar offences may well pause for thought - the only factor common to all four convictions is that emergent 'baseline' of three years.

6  Business as usual?

Midsummer '11 was a tectonic shift for the UK press.  Ably traced by News International seismographer Peter Jukes' book 'The Fall of the House of Murdoch', the 'fourteen days that ended a media dynasty' shook the fourth estate and toppled the News of the World.

On June 20th, Operation Elveden commenced - the new investigation into alleged bribery of police and public officials.  This marked a widening of the scope of alleged Hackgate offences, and was to be supervised by the Independent Police Complaints Commission (IPCC).  On 13th July, the Leveson Inquiry was announced by the Prime Minister.

Yet evidence is now emerging that that seismic 'moment' of summer '11 may not have brought malpractice to a juddering halt.  The recent resurgence of Elveden charges and convictions warrant some analysis, particularly the date ranges of alleged offences. Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) charging decisions have been accompanied by CPS statements (here)

made in the interests of transparency and accountability to explain the decisions reached in respect of cases arising from Operation Elveden, which is the Metropolitan Police Service investigation into allegations involving the unlawful provision of information by public officials to journalists.

• CPS Statement dated 15/05/2012  details News International-related charges for alleged offences up to July 19 2011.
• CPS Statement dated 20/03/2013, News International-related charges alleged offences up to August 2011.
• CPS Statement dated 22/01/2013, News International-related charges alleged offences up to September 2011.
• CPS Statement dated 20/11/2012, News International-related charges alleged offences up January 2012. 

These are in addition to Sue Akers' evidence to the Leveson Inquiry (paras 22-24)

• Trinity Mirror-related alleged offences up to January 2012
• Express Newspapers-related alleged offences up to February 2012

In each instance, the alleged offences took place AFTER the start fo Operation Elveden and the announcement of the Leveson Inquiry.

Hardly evidence of a cryogenic 'chilling effect' -  if proven, some might call this sheer hubris.

7  Farewell to Vos and Fulford

Judges presiding over phone hacking cases elevated to higher office - Mr Justices Vos and Fulford to become lord justices of appeal, and will not handle trials of former News International staff.

Both Vos and Fulford have made their individual marks on Hackgate, laying foundations in key civil and criminal cases for their respective successors.

Most memorable quote from Justice Vos:

They [News International] are to be treated as deliberate destroyers of evidence.

Most memorable quote about Justice Fulford:

At last members of the jury, we have a decent judge! 

8  Sun solidarity 

Sun staff show support as deputy editor appears in court

This is an interesting and thoughtful development, brought about by watching news footage of a fellow reporter's lone walk into court. It accompanies a new site, Call to Arms Now (here).  It is an informal invite to journalists to show dignified support for each other at each court appearance because "we as journalists have been sitting back watching colleagues we know and respect having their lives turned upside down for simply doing their job."  This quiet demonstration of solidarity could certainly be an opportunity to demonstrate their genuine strength of feeling.

But demonstrate that depth of feeling to who, exactly?  The Met for the dawn arrests?  CPS for the charging decisions? Courts? Hacked Off?

Or even perhaps Rupert Murdoch?

It certainly has the potential to demonstrate quiet determination to News Corporation. The Sun journalists should have no illusions about the veneer of loyalty shown them by their employer whilst it suits News Corp, or the speed at which it will disappear if it becomes inconvenient. Given the hostility towards the Management and Standards Committee (MSC), hacks seem in no mood to be hung out to dry should favoured senior executives not stand shoulder-to-shoulder with them in the dock.

If I were Murdoch I would be keeping a watchful eye open for where this new-found journalist solidarity might lead.


Related Articles
Hackgate - Elveden: Murdoch Or King Cnut?
Hackgate - Elveden - Murdoch's Catch 22
Hackgate - "Snakes And Ladders" At The Met
Hackgate - April Casburn's Conviction - Myths And Misconceptions
Hackgate - Varec Revisited - Dissent In The Ranks
Hackgate - Sue Akers' Swansong
Hackgate - "Newsdesk Here, Kelvin Speaking..."

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