Brown Moses Blog: Yugoslavia

Showing posts with label Yugoslavia. Show all posts

Sunday, 2 June 2013

A Note Of Caution On The West Providing Arms To The Opposition

This week there's been a lot of talk about the lifting of the EU arms embargo on Syria and the arming of the Syrian opposition. One key point has been ensuring the weapons only go to "good" rebels, broadly considered to by the Free Syrian Army (FSA), while ensuring the weapons stay out of the hands of "bad" rebels, Jabhat al-Nusra for example.

Despite the talk of arming the opposition as being a new thing, there's actually been one significant operation to arm the opposition in recent months. At the start of 2013 Syrian opposition fighters in the Daraa governorate in the south of Syria began to receive arms smuggled in from Jordan. These arms had been sold from government stockpiles by the Croatian government to Saudi Arabia, working hand-in-hand with the US, who then had them flown to Jordan and moved across the border. The weapons included:

M79 Osa Rocket Launcher - Manufactured in the former-Yugoslavia.
M60 Recoilless Gun - Lightweight mobile artillery from the former-Yugoslavia.
RPG-22 Rocket Launcher - A Soviet/Russian one-shot disposable rocket launcher.
RBG-6 Grenade Launcher - A Croatian copy of a South African 40mm grenade launcher.

The weapons were later joined by the RAK-12 multiple rocket launcher system.

It was notable that when the weapons began to appear in Youtube videos they all appeared to be in the hands of groups that were aligned with the Free Syrian Army, strongly suggesting the weapons were being purposely supplied to the Free Syrian Army only.

After just over two months from the weapons arriving in the south of the country they had began to appear in Damascus, Idlib, Hama, Deir Ez Zor, and elsewhere, and photographs and videos showed the weapons had spread beyond the Free Syrian Army. First Ahrar al-Sham, a loose collection of various Islamist and Salafist groups, posted this video showing them using two of the weapons provided by Saudi Arabia

M79 OSA

RBG-6

More recently there's been images showing Jabhat al-Nusra using these weapons, via their official statements

M60 (Source)

It's unclear how these weapons reached the hands of these groups, but considering how closely members of the Free Syrian Army and groups like Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra have worked together it seems unsurprising that these weapons might be sold or traded between the groups.

This would seem to add weight to the argument that arming the Free Syrian Army may result in the "bad" rebels getting their hands on the weapons, but in the example of the Croatian weapons there's one other factor to consider. In the case of the M60 recoilless gun and M79 Osa rocket launcher they both use ammunition that's unique to the weapon, and not commonly available on the black-market, or used widely outside of the former-Yugoslavia. This means that the only reliable source of ammunition will be the governments providing it, so if they choose to cut off the ammunition supply then the weapons become useless. This allows a certain amount of control, even if the weapons are reaching the hands of "bad" rebels, and this factor might influence the type of weapon sent to opposition groups in Syria in the future.

Related Articles
New Anti-Tank Weapons From The Former-Czechoslovakia Appear In Syria
Evidence Of Jabhat al-Nusra With Croatian Weapons
Croatian Weapons Arrive In Homs
More Videos Of Croatian Weapons With Non-FSA Islamists, Salafists, and Jihadi
Video Shows Non-FSA Jihadists Ahrar al-Sham Using Croatian Weapons
More Background On Croatian Weapons In Syria

You can contact the author on Twitter @brown_moses or by email at brownmoses@gmail.com

Saturday, 23 March 2013

Evidence Of Jabhat al-Nusra With Croatian Weapons

In recent weeks I've been tracking the spread of arms purchased from Croatia by Saudi Arabia which were then sent to what were meant to be moderate Free Syrian Army groups via Jordan. Already there's been examples of groups such as Ahrar al-Sham and other militant Islamist groups using these weapons, and there's now evidence that Jabhat al-Nusra has been using these weapons.

This first image of a M79 Osa titled "One of JAN lions fighting to liberate Alsahweh brigade", taken from this Jabhat al-Nusra statement, comes from a joint operation with other opposition groups to capture a military base outside of Al Sahweh, Daraa that took place in the middle of February, and involved a number of groups using a large number of weapons provided by Saudi Arabia from Croatia in the battle.

The second image is taken from this report, and shows a M60 recoilless gun being used to attack an army outpost, Hajez Barad, in Busr al-Harir, Daraa, on March 2nd. From late December 2012 onwards Busr al-Harir has been the scene of heavy fighting when multiple opposition groups attacked Syrian army forces in the town using large numbers of the Croatian weapons provided by Saudi Arabia.

In both cases multiple opposition groups were involved with the fighting, many of which were the original intended recipients of these weapons, so it's possible that Jabhat al-Nusra received these weapons from those groups during the battles. It's unclear how many weapons they received, but it'll be another aspect of the Croatian arms story I'll be tracking in the coming weeks and months.

Thanks to @troublejee for his help with this piece.

Update March 28th 2013 This video from Al Jazeera Arabic shows a M79 Osa in the hands of Jabhat al-Nusra in Damascus.

Related Articles
Croatian Weapons Arrive In Homs
More Videos Of Croatian Weapons With Non-FSA Islamists, Salafists, and Jihadi
Video Shows Non-FSA Jihadists Ahrar al-Sham Using Croatian Weapons
More Background On Croatian Weapons In Syria
Foreign Smuggled Weapons Spread Northwards Into Syria
Youtube playlist - M79 Osa Sightings in Syria
Youtube playlist - M60 Recoilless Gun Sightings in Syria
Youtube playlist - RBG-6 Sightings in Syria
Youtube playlist - RPG-22 Sightings in Syria

You can contact the author on Twitter @brown_moses or by email at brownmoses@gmail.com

Tuesday, 26 February 2013

More Background On Croatian Weapons In Syria

Some more information for those of you interested in the recent New York Times piece of Croatian weapons being sent to the Syrian opposition by Saudi Arabia.

Myself and others made a number of earlier reports on the subject, before it was clear who was providing the weapons, with my first post on the subject back in January 16th followed by two more updates as I discovered more information

Are Yugoslavian Anti-Tank Weapons Being Smuggled Into Syria?

Evidence Of Multiple Foreign Weapon Systems Smuggled To The Syrian Opposition In Daraa

Foreign Smuggled Weapons Spread Northwards Into Syria

From February James Miller and Scott Lucas of EA Worldview also produced a number of posts on the subject

Someone is Arming the Insurgents...and It's Working

The Insurgent Offensive Against Damascus and the Foreign Weapons

A New Insurgent Alliance --- With New Weapons --- Is Changing the War

Why Europe's "Embargo" on Arms to Insurgents is Not an Embargo --- Scott Lucas with Monocle 24

Syria --- How and Why the US is Arming the Insurgents

Michael Weiss examined the appearance of these weapons on February 20th with "Who just started arming Syria rebels?".

As part of my research into the weapons in questions I've put together a number of Youtube playlists with all the videos I've come across showing these weapons in the hands of the opposition:

RBG-6 Grenade Launcher

M79 Osa Rocket Launcher

RPG-22 Rocket Launcher

M60 Recoilless Gun

It appears Croatian weapons aren't the only recently sighted foreign weapons in Syria, with Chinese MANPADS (surface to air missiles), and French rockets appearing on the field in recent weeks.

Related articles

Media Mentions And Appearances

Syrian Channel Listings

The Weapons Of The Syrian Air Force

ITN's Truthloader - Syria's arms race: cluster bombs vs IEDs with Brown Moses

Foreign Policy - Syria's DIY Revolt

You can contact the author on Twitter @brown_moses or by email at brownmoses@gmail.com

Saturday, 2 February 2013

Foreign Smuggled Weapons Spread Northwards Into Syria

Last week I wrote about videos from Syrian State TV and opposition Youtube channels in the Daraa region that appeared to point to the smuggling of weapons into Syria. These weapons included the M60 recoilless gun and M79 Osa rocket launcher, both produced in the former Yugoslavia, as well as the RPG-22 rocket laucher and Milkor MGL/RBG-6 grenade launcher, both with links to Croatia.

Since then I've been carefully examining videos from the Daraa region looking for more examples of these weapons, and from what I've been able to gather it appears they first began to appear together on January 1st 2013. From about October 2012 one group in that region, the Lajat Armour Brigade, posted videos showing them in possession of RPG-22s (for example here), although not in significant quantities. What appears to happen on January 1st is a number of groups in the region join together to attack the Syrian military in the town of Busr al-Harir, northeast of Daraa city. All the groups involved in the attack appear to be armed with the weapons mentioned above, with only the M60 recoilless gun appearing later than the other 3 weapons, around two weeks into the fighting. During the fighting several tanks and BMPs are destroyed, and from what I can tell the fighters don't seem concerned about preserving the ammunition for these weapons.

While it's difficult to be certain about events my best guess is a large number of these weapons were delivered to one of the larger groups in the Daraa region, which then distributed the weapons to other groups in the region, who all participated in this attack. I believe one of the groups at the center of this may be the Omari Brigade, which appears to be one of the larger and more influential groups in the region, with details of their earlier activities in the region detailed on pages 22-23 of this Institute for the Study of War report.

One other interesting facet of this is that all the groups involved seem to be more on what you could call the FSA end of the Syrian opposition spectrum, as opposed to the Jihadi end of it. This has made me think that perhaps these weapons have been provided specifically to groups that in the long term may oppose the growing power and influence of Jabhat al-Nusra and other Jihadi groups, but currently there's not enough information to come to a firm conclusion.

Since the battle in Busr al-Harir we are now starting to see these weapons appear elsewhere in Syria, for example, here we have the Ababil Horan Brigade, originally based in the Horan region surrounding Daraa, using a M60 recoilless gun in Aqraba, Damascus, the first video of them using this weapon in that area appearing on January 26th

Next in the Hama region we have the Descendants of the Prophet brigade and an Milkor MGL/RBG-6 grenade launcher

And this third video is what I think is the most interesting of all. Filmed in Aleppo it shows a M79 rocket launcher, but what's interesting is who it is being shown to

The man shown in the video is Colonel Abdul-Jabbar Mohammed Aqidi, reportedly the former commander of the Free Syrian Army in the Aleppo province, and now part of the recently formed Supreme Military Council, acting as one of six representatives for the Northern Front, and maybe more tellingly, one of two members of the armament committee for the Northern Front, with this video being one of a series from his recent visit to opposition forces in Aleppo.

So what does this all mean? Well, it's hard to know if it's just a co-incidence that the newly smuggled weapons from the former-Yugoslavia end up being held by a senior member of the opposition in Aleppo, or that they only appear to be going to groups that seem to be aligned with the Syrian Opposition Coalition and Free Syrian Army, but it does seem for certain these weapons are spreading through Syria, and they must be coming into the country in significant quantities.

Friday, 25 January 2013

Evidence Of Multiple Foreign Weapon Systems Smuggled To The Syrian Opposition In Daraa

Recently the following video was shown on Syrian State TV showing what was claimed to be a cargo of weapons destined for the Syrian opposition seized near Daraa, in the southwest of Syria

Generally I consider Syrian State TV to be a very poor source of accurate information, and I've occasionally written about some of the more obvious examples of propaganda they broadcast in the past, but one thing that I found very interesting about this video is the weapons on display. What's interesting about this video is the types of weapons shown, and the quantity. Here's the weapons that appear in the video

M79 Osa Rocket Launcher

The M79 Osa was originally a Yugoslavian anti-tank weapon, designed in 1979, and still manufactured and used in countries that once made up the former-Yugoslavia. One interesting design element is that the rockets come in pods that attach to the rear of the rocket launcher, with the pods shown above in the first picture, and the launchers shown in the second picture. A clear image of the rocket launcher, rocket pod, and complete system can be seen here.

RPG-22

The RPG-22 is a one-shot disposable anti-tank weapon produced from the early 1980's, and used in a number of countries, but not, as far as I'm aware, Syria. A reference image showing the same markings as seen in the State TV video can be seen here.

M60 Recoilless Gun

The M60 Recoilless Gun is another weapon developed in Yugoslavia, and is not used by the Syrian military. Reference images are difficult to come by, but one can be seen on the right in this photograph.

Milkor MGL/RBG-6

This 40mm grenade launcher originates in South Africa as the Milkor MGL, but is manufactured under license in a number of countries, including Croatia, where it's known as the RBG-6. Due to the poor quality of the video it's unclear which specific model it is. The Syrian military does not currently use this weapon system. Reference images of the RBG-6 can be found here, and it's important to note the folding stock for later.

Here we have four weapon systems, all with links to the same region, the former Yugoslavia, but I'm sure there's many people who will instantly discount anything shown on Syrian State TV as being propaganda or faked in some way. What's very interesting about these weapons is they've all appeared in videos filmed by the Syrian opposition in Daraa at the same time, just as they make significant progress in that region.

For a bit of background on recent events in and around Daraa I spoke to James Miller of EA Worldview, who has been tracking events on the ground in Syria

So, out of nowhere about a month or so ago, rebels overran a lot of the border crossings in Daraa. I thought it was noise. At first I thought that maybe FSA units had left Damascus to pick a fight elsewhere as a diversion then, on January 14th, there came the paratroopers. So basically, for at least 12 days the rebels have had total control over Busr al Harir, perhaps even longer, but for the last week and a half the regime has been desperately fighting to get it back, but they seem incapable of doing so. Daraa is not a region where a lot of air bases have been lost, and the town is just not that big, so how are the rebels putting up this kind of a fight? Bases have been captured near Damascus, but no significant base has fallen in this region for several months.

A number of Youtube channels have been used by groups local to Busr al-Harir, and I've spent quite a bit of time reviewing the videos posted on those channels over the last few months. What I've found is around 3 weeks ago videos started being posted showing all the weapons I've listed above. Here's some examples:

Milkor MGL/RBG-6

M60 Recoilless Gun

RPG-22

M79 Osa Rocket Launcher

There's many more videos on the same channels as the above videos showing these same weapons in use in Busr al-Harir, and it's very hard to not conclude that the Syrian opposition in that area has recently received at least one shipment of arms from abroad, likely from nearby Jordan, and with a strong possibility the shipment originated in one of the countries that made up the former-Yugoslavia. A couple of examples of these same weapons have also recently been seen in the Deir Ez Zor and Aleppo regions, so that raises the question of whether or not this apparent smuggling operation is operating in those regions as well.