Finding The Exact Location Of An Alleged Chemical Munition, And What It Could Mean

After the alleged chemical attack in Damascus last week a number of videos and photographs were posted online showing the munition opposition activists linked to the attack.  One of the munitions, marked 197, was particularly well documented

From these videos it's possible to extract some useful information.  One blogger used photographs of the munition, and the shadows it cast at different points of the day, to estimate it had been fired from the north of it's final location.  From the photograph and video imagery I believe it was even possible to find the exact location of the munition using satellite maps, so I invited my followers on Twitter to help with the Storyful Open Newsroom investigation of the site, with Twiiter user @koincheking sent me his best guess of the location, between Zamalka and Ein Tarma

Now I had the task of confirming the exact location.  Using photos and videos of the munition I found, I began to compare images of the location to what could be seen in the map.  The quality of the satellite imagery wasn't too great, but it did give an idea of the location and size of various structures, and I managed to find 5 images from the videos and photos that I matched to the area.

In the below images I've used photographs or video stills to mark the field of view onto the satellite map imagery.  I've then numbered each point in the map and photograph/still that's a match, and explained it in more detail below.  Click the image to see it full sized.

Image 1

(Click for full size)

This photograph shows the area to the north of the rocket, which is position near the northwest corner of the large apartment building to the south of it's impact location.

At point 1 we can see the southwest corner of the building that's just north of the field.  From the satellite view this building appears to be only one or two storeys tall.

At point 2 we can see a multi-storey building, and can even just make out the rows of windows on the satellite image.  To the right of that building is a green area with a single or two storey building, not visible in the photograph because of the angle of the shot.

Image 2

This photograph shows the northwest corner of the apartment building south of the field, including the buildings in the distance to the south.  Comparing this to the satellite view confirms there's no structures between the corner and the buildings in the southwest.

Image 3

This photograph shows the view to the north, taken from the middle of the field, east of the impact site.

At point 1 we can see the structure that protrudes from the one or two storey building just north of the field.  This partly blocks the view of the buildings behind it, but at point 2 we can see the multistory building behind it.  You can even make out the pattern of windows on the buildings, with the balcony on the southwest of the building visible on the satellite map, then the four windows, the black area before the next building, and then the next building to it's right.

Between point 2 and 3 there's a road, and a single or two storey building, resulting in a gap.  At point 3 there's the same building shown in Image 1.

Image 4 

This image is showing the view from the east side of the field.

At point 1 we can see a small shed-like structure near to the apartment buildings south of the field.

Behind that structure, at point 2, we see a pair of multi-storey buildings, behind which, at point 3, is another multi-storey building.

Point 4 shows a distant building, and to the north of that, at point 5 we can see the southern edges of two large multistory buildings.  Much of the view to the left hand side of the image is obscured by trees visible in the satellite image.

Image 5

Here the camera is position to the east of the munition, facing southwest.

At point 1 we can see the multi-storey building that's taller than the building next to it, marked as point 2.

Behind those two buildings, to the southwest, is a smaller structure, marked at point 3.

At point 4 we see the corner of an apartment building, the alignment of which matches both on the satellite map and in the image.

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Individually, none of the images would be strong enough evidence to confirm the location of the munition, but having examined 5 images that appears to match the satellite map, without any noticeable differences from what we'd expect to see from those positions based off satellite map data, it seems like this location is a very strong match.

The munition itself appears to have buckled over on impact, which seems reasonable as the center section of the remaining warhead is a hollow metal tube.  This would seem to strongly indicate the munition was fired from the north, where 6-8km away you'll find a number of military installations, connected by a 2km road to the 155th Brigade missile base.  In one version of events, the Syrian National Coalition has claimed the rockets were launched from bases housing the 155th Brigade.

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You can contact the author on Twitter @brown_moses or by email at brownmoses@gmail.com